Basketball New Zealand

May 30, 2008

With nine games of the Dominion Finance NBL regular season remaining, the push for the NBL Playoffs has reached the finishing stretch. Six teams make the playoffs, four teams will be sitting at home the middle two weeks of June. – UPDATED MAY 30

With positions three (Appliance Shed Harbour Heat) through five (Easy LPG Bay Hawks) separated two games and the battle for the sixth and last playoff spot close, playoff positions are far from being confirmed.

The Century City Wellington Saints have now locked up the regular season title, while the Waikato Pistons, Heat, CPS Nelson Giants, and Hawks have confirmed their attendance at the Playoff Party.

Here’s how the teams chances shake down (projected records based on current standings):

CLINCHED

Century City Wellington Saints (13-4)

Remaining Games: R14: @ Jets
Opponents Win-Loss: 4-11 (27%)
Projected Record: 14-4 (1st)
Tiebreakers Won: Pistons 1-1 (+3), Heat 1-1 (+1), Giants 2-0, Stars 2-0, Rams 2-0, Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Hawks 1-1 (-21), Dynamos 1-1 (-9)
Tiebreakers Undecided: Jets 1-0 (+5)

The Saints wrapped up the regular season title in round 14 with a win over the Stars, the franchises third (added to 1988 and 2004), completed the first undefeated 9-0 season in Wellington history and guaranteed the Capital a home semifinal.

Waikato Pistons (12-5)

Remaining Games: R15: @ Stars
Opponents win-loss: 8-7 (53%)
Projected record: 13-5 (2nd)
Tiebreakers Won: Giants 1-1 (+5), Hawks 2-0, Dynamos 1-1 (+20), Jets 2-0, Rams 1-1 (+1), Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Saints 1-1 (-3), Heat 1-1 (-1)
Tiebreakers Undecided: Stars 1-0 (+21)

Despite two losses in round 12, the Pistons still became the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but saw their home semifinal chances drop a few levels with their third straight loss. Another loss, coupled with a Heat win in round 15, could see them drop to third or fourth.

Appliance Shed Harbour Heat (11-6)

Remaining Games: R15: @ Dynamos
Opponents win-loss: 7-9 (44%)
Projected record: 12-6 (3rd)
Tiebreakers Won: Pistons 1-1 (+1), Giants 2-0, Hawks 1-1 (+9), Rams 2-0, Nuggets 2-0, Jets 1-1 (+4)
Tiebreakers Lost: Saints 1-1 (-1), Stars 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Dynamos 1-0 (+21)

Their win over the Pistons confirmed two things: a playoff berth and a home game in the playoffs, whether it be a quarterfinal or semifinal, yet to be determined. Could finish second with a win in their final game and Pistons loss, as they now own the tiebreaker against Waikato.

CPS Nelson Giants (10-6)

Remaining Games: R15: @ Hawks, @ Jets
Opponents win-loss: 13-18 (42%)
Projected record: 12-6 (4th)
Tiebreakers Won: Stars 2-0, Dynamos 2-0, Rams 2-0, Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 1-1 (-5), Saints 0-2, Heat 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Hawks 1-0 (+11), Jets 0-1 (-5)

A crucial double-header confronts the Giants in round 15, after confirming their playoff status on Thursday. A win over the Hawks next Friday would ensure playoff basketball was played in Nelson for another season.

Easy LPG Bay Hawks (9-7)

Remaining Games: R15: vs Stars, vs Giants
Opponents win-loss: 18-13 (58%)
Projected record: 10-8 (5th)
Tiebreakers Won: Saints 1-1 (+21), Dynamos 1-1 (+18), Rams 1-1 (+6), Jets 2-0, Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 0-2, Heat 1-1 (-9),
Tiebreakers Undecided: Giants 0-1 (-11), Stars 1-0 (+13)

Despite Thursday night’s upset loss to the Rams, the Hawks had their playoff futures confirmed with the Dynamos earlier loss. Will need to win their remaining games at home, especially the season-ending tilt with the Giants, to play at home in the playoffs.

YET TO CLINCH

Youthtown Auckland Stars (8-7)

Remaining Games: R14: @ Nuggets; R15: @ Hawks, vs Pistons
Opponents win-loss: 23-26 (47%)
Projected record: 9-9 (6th)
Tiebreakers Won: Heat 2-0, Dynamos 2-0, Jets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Saints 0-2, Giants 0-2, Rams 1-1 (-9),
Tiebreakers Undecided: Pistons 0-1 (-21), Hawks 0-1 (-15), Nuggets 1-0 (+10)

The Stars have the toughest finishing schedule of any team - starting a stretch of four games in eight days on Thursday night, with three of their opponents in the top five and three on the road - but they can clinch their playoff berth with a win over the Nuggets on Saturday. Could yet make it without winning another game, if Taranaki also slip up.

Devon Dynamos Taranaki (7-9)

Remaining Games: R15: vs Jets, vs Heat
Opponents win-loss: 15-17 (47%)
Projected record: 8-10 (7th)
Tiebreakers Won: Saints 1-1 (+9), Rams 2-0, Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 1-1 (-20), Giants 0-2, Hawks 1-1 (-18), Stars 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Heat 0-1 (-21), Jets 0-1 (-9)

The equation is simple for the Dynamos: win their final two games and hope the Stars go winless in their last three. Otherwise another promising season will end without a playoff appearance.
Losses to the Stars and Heat last week put the Dynamos closer to elimination than confirmation.

ELIMINATED

Marley Canterbury Rams (5-12)

Remaining Games: R15: vs Nuggets
Opponents win-loss: 2-14 (13%)
Projected record: 6-12 (8th)
Tiebreakers Won: Stars 1-1 (+9)
Tiebreakers Lost: Saints 0-2, Pistons 1-1 (-1), Heat 0-2, Giants 0-2, Hawks 1-1 (-6), Dynamos 0-2, Jets 1-1 (-4)
Tiebreakers Undecided: Nuggets 1-0 (+4)

The Rams played spoiler for the Hawks on Thursday night, collecting their first home win of ‘08 at ‘Cowles Cauldron’ after seven straight losses, which lifted them above the Jets into eighth. Were eliminated even before the 31-point loss to the Saints in round 13 and will be out of the playoffs for the sixth straight season.

Property Brokers Manawatu Jets (4-11)

Remaining Games: R14: vs Saints; R15: @ Dynamos, vs Giants
Opponents win-loss: 30-19 (61%)
Projected record: 4-14 (9th)
Tiebreakers Won: Rams 1-1 (+4)
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 0-2, Hawks 0-2, Heat 1-1 (-4), Stars 0-2, Nuggets 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Saints 0-1 (-5), Giants 1-0 (+5), Dynamos 1-0 (+9)

Last week’s loss to the Hawks, ended their hopes, and the axe officially dropped when the Stars beat the Dynamos a night later. With the second-toughest finishing schedule with only Taranaki currently outside the top-six, it doesn’t get any easier for Manawatu.

Cartridge World Otago Nuggets (2-14)

Remaining Games: R14: vs Stars; R15: @ Rams
Opponents win-loss: 13-19 (41%)
Projected record: 2-16 (10th)
Tiebreakers Won: Jets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Saints 0-2, Pistons 0-2, Heat 0-2, Hawks 0-2, Giants 0-2, Dynamos 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Stars 0-1 (-10), Rams 0-1 (-4)

For the 11th straight season, the Nuglets will not be a feature of the NBL playoffs. Could give the Stars trouble this week, hoping for their first win in Dunedin in ‘08.