Basketball New Zealand

May 23, 2008

With four rounds of the Dominion Finance NBL regular season remaining, the push for the NBL Playoffs has started. Six teams make the playoffs, four teams will be sitting at home the middle two weeks of June. – UPDATED MAY 23

With positions three (Easy LPG Bay Hawks) through seven (Devon Dynamos Taranaki) separated by two games, quarterfinal positions are far from being confirmed. The Waikato Pistons and Century City Wellington Saints look locked into the top two spots, with the Saints, despite sitting second, now holding the keys to the regular season title.

Here’s how the teams chances shake down (projected records based on current standings):

ALIVE

Waikato Pistons (12-4)

Remaining Games: R13: bye; R14: vs Heat; R15: @ Stars
Opponents win-loss: 17-12 (59%)
Projected record: 14-4 (2nd)
Tiebreakers Won: Giants 1-1 (+5), Hawks 2-0, Dynamos 1-1 (+20), Jets 2-0, Rams 1-1 (+1), Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Saints 1-1 (-3)
Tiebreakers Undecided: Heat 1-0 (+7), Stars 1-0 (+21)

Despite two losses in round 12, the Pistons still became the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but could still finish anywhere from first to sixth. Wins in their final two games may still not be enough to lock up the number one seed and home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Their last two games against playoff teams (both live on Sky Sport) will be great playoff lead-ins.

Century City Wellington Saints (10-4)

Remaining Games: R13: @ Rams, @ Nuggets; R14: vs Stars, @ Jets
Opponents Win-Loss: 18-41 (31%)
Projected Record: 14-4 (1st)
Tiebreakers Won: Pistons 1-1 (+3), Heat 1-1 (+1), Giants 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Hawks 1-1 (-21), Dynamos 1-1 (-9)
Tiebreakers Undecided: Stars 1-0 (+5), Jets (+5), Rams 1-0 (+12), Nuggets 1-0 (+23)

With a closing schedule that ranks as easiest in the League and the Pistons slipping up, the regular season title is now the Saints to lose. Win out and they would clinch the number one spot whether Waikato win their final two or not, as they own the tiebreaker over the Pistons. A home semifinal beckons.

Easy LPG Bay Hawks (9-5)

Remaining Games: R13: @ Giants; R14: @ Rams; R15: vs Stars, vs Giants
Opponents win-loss: 28-29 (49%)
Projected record: 13-5 (3rd)
Tiebreakers Won: Saints 1-1 (+21), Dynamos 1-1 (+18), Jets 2-0, Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 0-2, Heat 1-1 (-9),
Tiebreakers Undecided: Giants 0-0, Stars 1-0 (+13), Rams 1-0 (+14)

Wednesday night’s win pushed the Hawks up to third and breathing down the neck of the Saints for a home semifinal. The Hawks play all four remaining games against teams below them in the standings and should gain a home quarterfinal with at least three wins. Would probably need to run the table to threaten the Pistons and Saints for the top two spots, while two wins would confirm at least a playoff berth.

Appliance Shed Harbour Heat (9-6)

Remaining Games: R13: vs Dynamos; R14: @ Pistons, R15: @ Dynamos
Opponents win-loss: 26-18 (59%)
Projected record: 11-7 (4th)
Tiebreakers Won: Giants 2-0, Hawks 1-1 (+9), Rams 2-0, Nuggets 2-0, Jets 1-1 (+4)
Tiebreakers Lost: Saints 1-1 (-1), Stars 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Pistons 0-1 (-7), Dynamos 0-0

Slipping up against the Jets on Sunday, probably cost the Heat a chance at a home semifinal and could yet cost them a home quarterfinal with the Hawks, Giants, Stars and Dynamos loitering with intent. Home and away games against the seventh-placed Dynamos still loom as crucial for both teams’ playoff positioning.

CPS Nelson Giants (8-6)

Remaining Games: R13: vs Hawks; R14: vs Dynamos; R15: @ Hawks, @ Jets
Opponents win-loss: 29-28 (51%)
Projected record: 10-8 (5th)
Tiebreakers Won: Stars 2-0, Rams 2-0, Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 1-1 (-5), Saints 0-2, Heat 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Hawks 0-0, Dynamos 1-0 (+17), Jets 0-1 (-5)

Play two of their remaining four games on the road, including what could be a crucial round 15 double-header. Home-and-away games against the Hawks, a repeat of the 2007 NBL Finals, will be pivotal for playoff positioning. May need to win three to play at home in the first round, while a slip-up at home in round 13 could see them battling with the Stars and Dynamos for a berth.

Youthtown Auckland Stars (8-6)

Remaining Games: R14: @ Saints, @ Nuggets; R15: @ Hawks, vs Pistons
Opponents win-loss: 33-26 (56%)
Projected record: 9-9 (6th)
Tiebreakers Won: Heat 2-0, Dynamos 2-0, Jets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Giants 0-2, Rams 1-1 (-9),
Tiebreakers Undecided: Pistons 0-1 (-21), Saints 0-1 (-4), Hawks 0-1 (-15), Nuggets 1-0 (+10),

A win over the Dynamos gave the Stars the tiebreaker and effectively a two-game lead in sixth. With three of their final four games against the top three, the Stars cannot feel safe yet but with Taranaki also facing a tough finishing schedule, they may squeeze into the playoffs with a 9-9 record. An upset over a top-three side would almost guarantee them a place.

Devon Dynamos Taranaki (7-7)

Remaining Games: R13: @ Heat; R14: @ Giants; R15: vs Jets, vs Heat
Opponents win-loss: 30-29 (51%)
Projected record: 8-10 (7th)
Tiebreakers Won: Saints 1-1 (+9), Rams 2-0, Nuggets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 1-1 (-20), Hawks 1-1 (-18), Stars 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Heat 0-0, Giants 0-1 (-17), Stars 0-1 (-3), Jets 0-1 (-9)

Thursday night’s loss to the Stars put the Dynamos closer to elimination than the playoffs. A loss tonight against the Heat would put them on the brink. Most likely need to win three of their final four games and hope the Stars slip-up. Not owning the tiebreaker against the Stars, the best case scenario could be a three-way tie could be their best chance to back into the postseason on countback.

ELIMINATED

Property Brokers Manawatu Jets (4-11)

Remaining Games: R14: vs Saints; R15: @ Dynamos, vs Giants
Opponents win-loss: 25-17 (61%)
Projected record: 4-14 (9th)
Tiebreakers Won: Rams 1-1 (+4)
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 0-2, Hawks 0-2, Heat 1-1 (-4), Stars 0-2, Nuggets 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Saints 0-1 (-5), Giants 1-0 (+5), Dynamos 1-0 (+9)

Wednesday night’s loss to the Hawks, ended their hopes. Manawatu could still get to seven wins but with the Stars and Dynamos meeting tonight, one team will get atleast eight wins. With the second-toughest finishing schedule with only Taranaki currently outside the top-six, it doesn’t get any easier for Manawatu.

Marley Canterbury Rams (4-11)

Remaining Games: R13: vs Saints; R14: vs Hawks; R15: vs Nuggets
Opponents win-loss: 20-23 (47%)
Projected record: 5-13 (8th)
Tiebreakers Won: Stars 1-1 (+9)
Tiebreakers Lost: Heat 0-2, Giants 0-2, Jets 1-1 (-4), Pistons 1-1 (-1)
Tiebreakers Undecided: Saints 0-1 (-12), Hawks 0-1 (-14), Dynamos 0-1 (-25), Nuggets 1-0 (+4)

Like the Jets, the Rams can only get to seven wins and either Auckland or Taranaki will reach eight wins tonight. An 0-6 record in Christchurch, where they play their final three games, has not helped. Can be a thorn in the side of the Saints and Hawks in the battle for a home semifinal.

Cartridge World Otago Nuggets (2-13)

Remaining Games: R13: vs Saints; R14: vs Stars; R15: @ Rams
Opponents win-loss: 22-21 (51%)
Projected record: 2-16 (10th)
Tiebreakers Won: Jets 2-0
Tiebreakers Lost: Pistons 0-2, Heat 0-2, Hawks 0-2, Giants 0-2, Dynamos 0-2
Tiebreakers Undecided: Saints 0-1 (-23), Stars 0-1 (-10), Rams 0-1 (-4)

For the 11th straight season, the Nuglets will not be a feature of the NBL playoffs. Saturday night’s home loss to the Hawks officially removed Otago from the postseason equation. They could still play spoiler with games against the Saints and Stars at home remaining.