NBA Player Props: Dec. 25, 2025

Here are my top player prop picks for Christmas Day. Short, straightforward takes on who I like to go over or under with the point lines and the odds listed as a reference. Remember these are opinions, not guarantees.

Christmas Day player prop picks

Donovan Mitchell — Over 29.5 points (Odds: 1.87)
The Cavaliers need a win on the road and Mitchell usually brings extra energy against the Knicks, especially given his ties to New York. He’s been the clear offensive leader this season and should be the guy handling the bulk of the scoring load, so I like him to clear this total.

De’Aaron Fox — Under 17.5 points (Odds: 1.87)
Fox hasn’t had as much offensive freedom lately with his team getting healthier, and he’s not forcing plays as much as earlier in the season. Facing a tough defense on a busy schedule, I expect his scoring to be limited and to stay under the number.

Cooper Flagg — Over 19.5 points (Odds: 1.87)
Flagg’s role has been growing and he’s finding better shot opportunities each game. For a player in the middle of adjusting into a bigger role, the motivation of playing on Christmas should boost his minutes and shot attempts — enough to push him over this line in my view.

Austin Reaves — Over 19.5 points (Odds: 1.95)
Reaves is having the best season of his career and looks to be fully back. He’s one of the primary scoring options on his team and should see a solid volume of shots. I expect his usual workload to get him past this total.

Nikola Jokic — Over 29.5 points (Odds: 1.87)
The Nuggets run through Jokic offensively and he tends to elevate his game against the Timberwolves. With so much of the offense flowing through him, I expect him to be in position to surpass the scoring line.

Notes and final thoughts

Odds listed were current at the time of publication. These picks are concise opinions based on recent form, matchups, and projected usage. Do your own research and consider injuries and rotations leading up to tipoff. Bet responsibly and treat this as entertainment rather than financial advice.